À l’approche du jour des élections, les prévisions météorologiques pour le Michigan prévoient des orages qui pourraient décourager certains électeurs de se rendre aux urnes. Malgré environ 2,6 millions de bulletins déjà votés, des averses pourraient perturber ceux qui attendent jusqu’au jour des élections. Des études suggèrent que les conditions météorologiques, comme la pluie, désavantagent souvent les électeurs démocrates. Dans ce contexte, les électeurs républicains, plus motivés, pourraient compenser les effets négatifs sur l’affluence. Les résultats du Michigan, avec une lutte serrée entre Trump et Harris, pourraient être influencés par ces facteurs météorologiques.
With Election Day approaching, meteorologists are sharpening their predictions for weather conditions nationwide, and the forecast for Michigan may discourage some voters from making it to the polls.
Key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the next President. Recent surveys indicate a tightly contested race between Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
Although nearly 2.6 million ballots have been cast in Michigan through early voting and mail-in ballots, those opting to vote on Election Day might face disruptions due to severe weather.
This weekend, a sluggish storm system is expected to affect much of the central United States. While the storm will have passed its most intense phase by next Tuesday, it could still bring heavy thunderstorms to Michigan’s lower peninsula, according to AccuWeather.
They reported that ‘torrential rain, localized flash flooding, and the risk of lightning strikes could create travel delays and complications for voters standing in long lines at polling places.’
In the Upper Peninsula as well, Michiganders should prepare for some rainfall. Forecaster Paul Pastelok from AccuWeather noted that storms may pose risks to those waiting outside to vote.
He said, ‘As storms near polling locations, individuals who may have been in line for hours might need to step out to seek shelter.’
Research Shows Rainy Weather Favors Republicans
Multiple studies have demonstrated that weather conditions significantly affect voter turnout.
A 2007 study by the University of Georgia, University of California, Merced, and the University of Pittsburgh found that rain is more likely to deter Democratic voters compared to Republicans. Furthermore, voter turnout decreased by 1 percent for each additional inch of rain, and snowfall also negatively impacted turnout, especially among older voters.
The study concluded that ‘bad weather can have a direct effect on voter turnout and can significantly lower the Democratic presidential vote share, benefiting Republicans.’
A 2023 analysis published in the journal Electoral Studies indicated that rainy conditions tend to affect younger voters (aged mid-twenties or younger), lowering their turnout by nearly 6 percent.
Another study from Sage Journals in 2018 found that rainfall could reduce the Democratic candidate’s vote share by about 2.08 percentage points while boosting the Republican candidate’s share by about 1 percentage point.
Political strategist Weaver noted that Trump supporters exhibit an ‘exuberance and energy’ for their candidate that is ‘unmatched in contemporary American politics.’ While these voters might historically have been swayed by bad weather, this year, with Trump on the ballot, they are expected to remain determined to vote.
‘His supporters will go to great lengths to get to the polls because they see him as the answer to America’s challenges,’ Weaver explained.
On the other hand, according to Weaver, Harris supporters tend to be more driven by their aversion to Trump than their admiration for Harris.
‘Considering the high energy levels on both sides this year, along with the prevalence of early voting, I believe weather may not hold as much weight as it would in other election years,’ Weaver added.
Harris Might Gain Advantage Based on Support Base, Says Strategist
Cooperman suggested that bad weather might keep low-propensity voters—those who traditionally don’t vote or are less engaged—at home. ‘These voters are the ones Trump is courting, and this could impact his numbers. Older voters may also be deterred by poor weather, but their votes tend to be split between Trump and Harris, with many participating early.’
Moreover, Cooperman noted that ‘Harris generally enjoys support from more habitual voters, so adverse weather conditions will likely affect her less.’
Results of the 2020 Michigan Election
In the 2020 election, Trump was defeated by President Joe Biden in Michigan by approximately 150,000 votes, after having won the state in 2016. As of October 31, polling aggregator 538 showed Harris leading Trump by 1 point in Michigan.
Rain is also anticipated for Wisconsin and possibly the northwest region of Pennsylvania, while North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are forecasted to experience dry conditions on Election Day.